Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) will get three seats while ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) will win the remaining two in the bypolls held in five Assembly constituencies in Kerala, according to an exit poll conducted by Manorama News, in association with Karvy Insights.
The exit poll predicted UDF win in Manjeswaram, Ernakulam and Vattiyoorkkavu. and LDF win in Aroor and Konni. NDA will draw a blank.
Manjeswaram to go UDF way
Kerala's northernmost assembly constituency Manjeswaram will once again support UDF, predicted the exit poll.
UDF will get 36% votes to emerge the winner. LDF and NDA will get 31% votes each to finish joint second.
If the prediction comes true, this is going to be a big advantage for LDF, which had been finishing third behind the UDF and the NDA.
In 2019 Lok Sabha election, Manjeswaram Assembly constituency stood with the UDF with 42.39% votes. NDA finished second with 35.49% while LDF came third 20.38%. Manjeswaram is part of Kasaragod Lok Sabha seat.
In 2016 Assembly election, UDF got 35.86% pipping NDA by 0.06% votes (89 votes). NDA got 35.80% votes. LDF got 26.34% votes.
Participating in the debate, BJP leader PK Krishnadas said BJP will preform impressively in Manjeswaram. "BJP has a strong presence in Manjeswaram. I don't trust in this exit poll," he said.
Ernakulam to remain with UDF
The exit poll predicted big UDF victory in Ernakulam, which was hit by heavy rain on Monday.
UDF will garner 55% votes to retain its safest seat in the state, while LDF will finish a distant second with just 30% votes. NDA will finish third with 12% votes, the poll predicted.
In 2019 Lok Sabha election, UDF got 55.43% votes in the Assembly constituency. LDF got 27.52% while NDA got 15.90% votes. Ernakulam assembly constituency is part of the Ernakulam Lok Sabha seat.
In 2016 Assembly election, UDF got 52% votes, while LDF got 32.45% votes for second position and NDA collected 13.45% votes to finish third.
"Ernakulam is our strongest seat and we never had a doubt about UDF victory," said Congress leader Benny Behnan, while participating in a debate on the exit poll.
LDF may win Aroor in photo-finish
The exit poll predicted a photo finish in Aroor, with LDF retaining the seat with a one percent victory margin. LDF is expected to get 44% votes as against UDF's 43%. NDA will finish third with 11% votes.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, UDF got an upper hand with 41.31% votes, while LDF got 40.91% votes. NDA finished third with 15.89%. Aroor is part of Alappuzha Lok Sabha constituency.
In the 2016 Assembly poll, LDF won the seat with 52.43% votes. UDF finished second with 28.54% votes and NDA came third 17.14% votes.
Congress leader VD Satheesan, participating in the debate, said Aroor witnessed tough fight. “But I am pretty sure that UDF candidate Shanimol Usman will win the election,” he said.
Big surprise at Konni
The exit poll has predicted LDF victory by 5% margin. The poll predicted LDF would get 46% votes as against UDF's 41%. NDA would finish third with just 12% votes, the exit poll predicted.
Konni is considered to be a strong UDF constituency. LDF had won the seat only twice so far.
UDF got 34% votes in Konni - which is part of Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha constituency - in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. LDF finished 32.46% while NDA finished a close third with 32.17%.
In the 2016 Assembly election, UDF got 50% votes followed by LDF on second with 36.45% and NDA on third with 11.7%.
Participating in the exit poll debate on Manorama News, CPM leader and Fisheries Minister J Mercykutty Amma said she is not surprised by the exit poll prediction. "The prediction will come true. It is going to be a big political victory for CPM," she said.
UDF retains Vattiyoorkkavu, LDF second
Vattiyoorkkavu, which witnessed a tough three-way contest among UDF, LDF and NDA, will go to the UDF once again, predicted the exit poll.
UDF will get 37% votes to retain the seat, while LDF will finish second with 36% votes. NDA, the runner-up in 2016 Assembly and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, will finish third with 26% votes.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, UDF got 39.48% votes, NDA came second with 37.39% votes. LDF finished third with 21.69% votes. Vattiyoorkkavu is part of Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency.
In the 2016 Assembly election, UDF collected 37.43% votes, while NDA got 31.87%. LDF got 29.50% to finish third.
“LDF won't transfer votes to UDF this time because of the candidature of VK Prashanth. That will help BJP,” said party leader MS Kumar, in an exit poll debate.