Thiruvananthapuram: The LDF will win up to 18 out of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, according to the CPM secretariat that met here on Friday. The results will be similar to the elections of 2004 and the front may even secure more seats, feels the CPM.
Meanwhile, leaders who took part in the meeting pointed out that the BJP had traded its votes in five seats. However, LDF could overcome such challenges, they added.
Participants of the meeting hoped that LDF would make significant gains thanks to the consolidation of minority votes in its favour and by polling a large number of votes belonging to the majority community.
CPM’s analysis is that Left Front would register certain victories at Kasaragod, Palakkad, Alathur, Thrissur, Kollam, Alappuzha and Attingal. There are high chances for a win at Pathanamthitta, Idukki , Vadakara and Chalakkudy.
Even though it was felt that the rise in polling would benefit the LDF, CPM could not make an assumption on how the shift of BJP votes would affect its prospects.
Addressing a press meet after the secretariat meeting, CPM state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan said: “BJP and UDF struck a secret deal in five constituencies. We’ll have to wait for the results to find out its impact. But our party feels that LDF could tide over such situations and make good progress.”
The CPM is of the opinion all traditional LDF voters have exercised their franchise in favour of the front. In addition, people supporting the LDF also chose the front. The minority communities too backed the Left, claimed CPM.
In 2004, BJP secured 10.38 % votes, but LDF won 18 seats. In 2009, BJP’s vote share fell to 6.31 %, while LDF’s tally was four. Five years later, BJP received 10 % votes and LDF won eight seats. In the Assembly polls of 2016, BJP got 10.53 % votes but LDF came back to power. Now the LDF is most concerned about the inconsistency in BJP’s votes.
“In 2004, the minorities came out in large numbers to vote and LDF won 18 of the 20 seats. During the recent elections, the votes of majority community split into three,” said Kodiyeri.
BJP will be placed third in Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamthitta and Thrissur, feels the CPM. “The BJP will not open its account in Kerala even though its vote share would go up,” remarked the CPM secretary.
To a query, Kodiyeri replied that the LDF had not taken a decision that it would not discuss the Sabarimala issue during the polls. “By discussing the issue in the light of the Supreme Court judgment, the LDF could win over all pro-Left voters. Such votes did not splinter during this poll,” claimed Kodiyeri.
“Some organizations representing the majority community had opposed the LDF some time ago. But they supported the front now. Moreover, the NSS adopted an equidistance policy,” he added.
On Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s candidature, Kodiyeri said: “It did not affect the elections in Kerala. Rahul contested in Wayanad. How could people in other constituencies vote for him?”
According to him, LDF was not concerned over the rise in polling percentage. “But BJP is anxious. Its leaders are claiming victory only to keep the cadres together,” said the CPM leader.
Moreover, the LDF could expose the BJP-UDF vote trade in five seats, he added. “The ‘Co-Lea-B’ (Congress-League-BJP) nexus existed in Vadakara earlier. But after it was revealed, LDF could win. The same situation exists during the present polls,” said Kodiyeri.