Is Modi staring at his biggest poll rout?

Is Modi staring at his biggest poll rout?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Photo: Reuters
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New Delhi: India's ruling party could lose power in key states, TV networks said on Tuesday, citing votecount leads, potentially handing Prime Minister Narendra Modi his biggest defeat since he took office in 2014, and months ahead of the Lok Sabha election

The main opposition Congress party could form governments in Chhattisgarh, and in Rajasthan, all big heartland states that powered Modi to a landslide win in the 2014 general election.

Analysts say a big loss for Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party would signify rural dismay and help unite the opposition, despite his high personal popularity in the face of criticism that he did not deliver on promises of jobs for young people and better conditions for farmers.

Madhya Pradesh Polls 2018 Vote Share

"We've all voted for Congress this time and our candidate is winning here," said Bishnu Prasad Jalodia, a wheat grower in Madhya Pradesh, where it appears as if Congress might have to woo smaller parties to keep out Modi's party.

"BJP ignored us farmers, they ignored those of us at the bottom of the pyramid."

Rajasthan Polls 2018 Vote Share

The elections are also a test for Rahul Gandhi, Congress president, who is trying to forge a broad alliance with regional groups and face Modi with his most serious challenge yet, in the election that must be held by May.

Congress
Congress supporters celebrate after initial trends gave the party a clear edge.

In Rajasthan, the Congress was leading in 94 of the 199 seats contested, against 80 for the BJP, in the initial round of voting.

In Chhattisgarh, the Congress was ahead in 63 of the 90 seats at stake, with the BJP at 17. In Madhya Pradesh, the most important of the five states that held assembly elections over the past few weeks, Congress and BJP were involved in a neck-to-neck fight.

Chhattisgarh Polls 2018 Vote Share

While TRS was leading Telangana in the south and MNF was in the lead in Mizoram in the northeast.

Local issues usually dominate state polls, but politicians are seeing the elections as a pointer to the national vote just months away.

Telangana Polls 2018 Vote Share

Indian markets recovered some ground after an early fall as the central bank governor's unexpected resignation the previous day shocked investors.

The rupee currency dropped as much as 1.5 per cent to 72.465 per dollar, while bond yields rose 12 basis points to 7.71 per cent after the resignation of Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel.

The broader NSE share index was down 1.3 per cent, with investors cautious ahead of the election results.

Mizoram Polls 2018 Vote Share

"As the three erstwhile BJP states have a large agrarian population, the BJP's drubbing could be interpreted to mean that farm unrest is real," Nomura said in a research note before the results.

"A rout of the BJP on its homeground states should encourage cohesion among the opposition parties to strengthen the non-BJP coalition for the general elections."

Rahul Gandhi, the fourth generation scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, has sought to build a coalition of regional groups, some headed by experienced firebrand, ambitious politicians.

Congress has already said it would not name Rahul Gandhi, who is seen as lacking experience, as a prime ministerial candidate.

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